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Prediction for CME (2025-12-04T03:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-12-04T03:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43243/-1
CME Note: Faint CME observed to the E in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2. The source is an M6.0 class flare from AR 14300 (N10E58) which peaked at 2025-12-04T02:50Z best observed in GOES SUVI 131. Additionally observed as wide field line movement/EUV wave in GOES SUVI 171/195/284, with some dimming around the region in GOES SUVI 195.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-12-08T04:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43249/1
Model Inputs:
2025-12-04T03:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-39.0, Lat.=1.0, Speed=516.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2025-12-04T10:07Z
2025-12-04T07:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-41.0, Lat.=-36.0, Speed=651.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2025-12-04T13:53Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-12-08T04:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251204_100800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 85.22 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2025-12-04T14:47Z

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